Witches’ brew in Lebanon

In this article Yacov Ben Efrat* discusses the political and religious mine-field surrounding the forthcoming presidential elections in Lebanon.

Who won the Lebanon War in 2006? In Israel the Consensus is clear: the winograd committee, appointed by PM Ehud Olmert to investigare his conduct of the war, declared his performance a failure. In Lebanon the question continues to bubble. In the view of Lebanese Prime Minister, Siniora, Hezbollah’s capture of Israel soldiers in July 2006 served Iranian interests while bringing disaster on Lebanon. The Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, believes the war was a divine victory: a mortal blow to Israel’s power of deterrence. But the debate is not confined to these two. Syria and Iran celebrated the defeat of Israel, while Saudi Arabia and Egypt, backed by France and the United States, endorse Siniora’s reading. The argument has degenerated into a power struggle for control of Lebanon. Who will rule (and become the next president), the coalition led by the Shiites under Nasrallah or the current governing alliance, led by the Sunnis under Saad Hariri. Saad Hariri is the son of ex-Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri, assassinated on February 14, 2005, at the behest – it is suspected -of Syria.

ethnic/religious divisions

The coalitions and alliances in Lebanon are extremely complex, because they include more than political currents. The ethnic-religious factor is deeply involved. When the French (colonisers) withdrew in 1943, the two top Muslim and Christian leaders reached an unwritten agreement known as the National Pact. Governance was divided along ethnic-religious lines. But many Christians emigrated, and the Muslims, with their higher birth rate, became the majority. Reflecting this change, the apportionment of powers was modified in the Taif Agreement of 1989, but

ethnicity remains the key. The presidency goes to a Maronite Christian, the prime ministry to a Sunni, and a Shiite must be speaker of parliament (with power to veto legislation). This formula is further complicated by conflicts of interest within each religious-ethnic group, especially the Christian. The divisions are geographical too. What is more, each group enlists foreign allies against its rivals.

The ethnic conflict reached a climax in November 2007, because the term of President Emil Lahoud will end on the 24th, and there was no agreement among the rival groups as to who should succeed him. The lack of accord, we shall see, raises again the spectre of civil war.

 

Political divisions

The Lebanese president has broad authority. Among other things, he is supreme commander of the armed forces, has a hand in appointing the prime minister, and has legislative powers and heads cabinet discussions. He is directly elected by the parliament. On the first round of voting a two thirds majority is required, but if a second round is necessary, a simple majority will do.

parliament chooses the president, the outcome of the general elections is crucial. At the moment, for instance, Hezbollah has enough parliamentary seats to block a two-thirds majority in the first round of presidential voting.

Theoretically, the Maronites (Christians), led by their patriarch, should agree on a single presidential the parliament. On the first round of voting a two- thirds majority is required, but if a second round is necessary, a simple majority will do.

The parliament (Chamber of Deputies) is elected in general popular elections. Each religious community has a specified allotment of seats,

candidate. But the Maronites are split. Their leader, Michel Aoun, forged an alliance with Hezbollah even before the war, and now he seeks the presidency. His Maronite rivals are partners in the Sunni-led coalition, which controls parliament by a slight majority, far less than the two-thirds needed in Round One.

 

Israeli withdrawal

In the year 2000, two events occurred that broke the consensus. In May Israel withdrew its troops from the southern part of the country. In November George W. Bush, who viewed the Middle East in terms of a conflict between good and evil, was elected president of the US.

When Israeli PM Ehud Barak withdrew his army from Lebanon in May 2000, Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah interpreted this as a triumph, but he failed to consider the long-term implications. Lebanon’s Prime Minister at the time, Rafik Hariri, was a close ally of Saudi Arabia, (where he had grown rich). Before Israel’s withdrawal, Hariri had tolerated Syrian “protection” of his conquered land. With Israel out, however, he saw no justification for the continuing Syrian presence. The United States’ allies also began to question the legitimacy of the armed Shiite resistance, Hezbollah.

Matters came to a head in 2004, when the pro- Syrian president, Emil Lahoud, was about to finish his term. Syria engineered a change in the Lebanese constitution, giving Lahoud another three years. Rafik Hariri resigned in protest. One month later, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1559, which called for the Syrian military withdrawal from Lebanon and the disarming of Hezbollah.

 

syrian withdrawal

Since then events in Lebanon have followed at a dizzying pace. Hariri was assassinated. Protest demonstrations led Syria to withdraw its military in April 2005. One month later, the anti-Syrian bloc lead by Saad Hariri, captured control of the

In Israel the consensus is clear: the

Winograd Committee, appointed by PM Ehud Olmert to investigate his conduct of the war, declared his performance a failure.

In Lebanon the question continues to bubble. In the view of Lebanese Prime Minister, Siniora, Hezbollah’s capture of Israeli soldiers in July 2006

served Iranian interests while bringing disaster on Lebanon. The Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, believes the war was a divine victory: a mortal blow to Israel’s power of deterrence. But the debate is not confined to these two. Syria and Iran celebrated the defeat of Israel, while Saudi Arabia and Egypt, backed by France and the United States, endorse

adding up to half for the Christian groups, half for the Muslim. (This 50-50 division does not reflect the current demographic reality.) Candidates vie within geographical constituencies that include the other religious groups. Competing Muslim candidates, for example, must vie for Christian

votes within a constituency, and vice-versa. Because legislature, winning 72 of its 128 seats despite Syrian opposition. Siniora became prime minister. Although Hezbollah joined his government, it

was under pressure to disarm. Then it abducted two Israeli soldiers. Despite Nasrallah’s denials, the intention may have been to provoke a strong enough Israeli response to justify its continued

existence as a militia.

Presidential proposal

As Lebanon nears the end of Lahoud’s extended presidential term, and there is growing concern that the country may come apart. On November 9 Al-Hayat (newspaper) published details about a present this seems unlikely. The US bleeds in Iraq and cannot see its way out. We are a far cry from 2003, when it thought it could topple regimes. Since then the Middle East has been sliding into a series of civil wars, in the Occupied Territories and Iraq. What happens in Lebanon will be a sign for the future. If civil war erupts here too, it may easily